Thursday, September 11, 2014

Negotiate Like a Bored Russian


Russians have their own, unique style. It isn't pleasant. And when it's over, they'll seem as relieved as you. Maybe you'll even become friends because that's what happens to innocent soldiers when the war is over. The fact is, it's all part of the plot and Russians know well how to tell the story of suffering and victory. When negotiating with a Russian, prepare to endure the intense, complex, and labored narrative of a thick novel.

When the peninsula was invaded, the idea of an imminent WWIII raised its multimedia profile. Putin's extreme move ran contrary to signed documents. But remember, initially he denied any involvement. What anonymous soldiers with Russian license-plates? A staged election added a veneer of legitimacy but remains factually insignificant; Russia occupies Crimea. At the time, there was no violence, no war. Their stagecraft failed to incite revolt. So they raised the stakes, massing troops at the boarder and sending operatives into nearby population centers. When entering negotiations with a Russian, brace yourself for an emotional roller-coaster that starts with the extreme.

Negotiating with a Russian means dealing with someone who isn't in charge. It means no matter what you agree upon, they'll have to take it to someone else to make the call, even if you're talking to Putin himself, in this case a bystander who claims to have no troops or agenda in a place he now refers to as “New Russia.” When negotiating with a Russian, expect he'll always have to get back to you.

Putin admits to some influence, strictly used for humanitarian purposes. Contrary to this facade, his real agenda is focused and his influence, widespread. For example, the thing to do if you're a Russian soldier with some time-off is to vacation in New Russia and play real-war. Recently, a group of captured Russian paratroopers were exchanged for Ukrainian fighters which brings us to our next point.



When your Russian counterpart doesn't like the facts on the ground, they will use a magic-wand to make it all disappear: incompetence. What happened was not as it seems; there's no invasion. Instead, it was a small error in a complex calculation. It won't happen again – until it does. And sanctions? This time the West made the mistake. Sanctions only help the Russian economy in the long-run by providing opportunity to indigenous merchants. If you think you've got a Russian cornered, be assured they will turn it around and frame you in that same corner. Moreover, if you do them a favor, it is seen as weakness. And when you make a mistake, they'll never let you forget it.


A crisis in Ukraine? In Russia, it's more like an opportunity they have all the time in the world to monopolize. They're in no hurry, possibly even bored. The fact is Putin is popular. His people support him and see him as the wise-warrior who only wishes to protect his Ukrainian-Russian family from the reach of the radical Ukrainian Government. What he really wants is no secret: a land-bridge to the peninsula. The Crimean naval-base is non-negotiable. Remember South Ossetia? That was the blueprint. New Russia is the master-plan. And when Putin wins, he'll frame it as if he did us all a favor. 

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